2024 election predictions

Historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate U.S. presidential election predictions since 1984, forecasts Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely winner of the 2024 election. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, endorsing Harris, she is now competing against former President Donald Trump. Lichtman's 'Keys to the White House' formula, which consists of 13 true or false questions, currently gives Harris six keys, indicating a strong position, while Trump holds three. The remaining four keys, including factors like third-party influences and foreign military outcomes, remain undecided. Polls show Harris and Trump in a tight race, with recent data indicating Harris has a slight lead in voter registrations. Lichtman emphasizes that for Harris to lose, significant unfavorable changes would need to occur.