US recession signal

Recent economic indicators suggest that while fears of a recession are prevalent, the U.S. economy is not currently in a downturn. A Fitch report indicates that the rise in the unemployment rate is largely due to an influx of workers into the labor market, rather than significant job losses, labeling the recession signal a likely false positive. Former White House Economic Advisor Steve Moore affirmed that although the economy is slowing, a recession is not inevitable. Claudia Sahm, the creator of the Sahm rule, also contends that the economy is still growing, despite recent job report shortcomings. Concerns remain regarding high interest rates and the potential for a downturn if economic conditions fail to stabilize. Overall, the prevailing sentiment warns against excessive pessimism, which could inadvertently lead to a self-fulfilling recession.