Trump's 2024 Campaign: Implications for Asia

The geopolitical landscape in Asia is poised for turbulence as the prospect of a second Trump presidency raises concerns in Japan, which fears renewed trade wars, while China appears to welcome Trump's return due to past gains from his tariffs. Japanese policymakers are apprehensive that Trump's policies could undermine their national security and economic stability, especially as UBS estimates that tariffs could significantly hurt China's GDP. Meanwhile, the US has intensified its narrative against China, labeling it a destabilizing force in the East and South China Seas, which has further complicated regional tensions. The recent security talks between the US and Japan, as well as the QUAD alliance, emphasized the need to counter perceived threats from Beijing. Additionally, the conservative Project 2025 blueprint suggests a more aggressive US stance towards China, depicting it as a significant threat rather than a competitor. Experts warn that if Trump is re-elected, the US-China relationship could become even more adversarial, indicating a challenging future for bilateral ties.