2024 forecast

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, has emerged as a popular platform where users can wager on various political outcomes, including the 2024 presidential election. Currently, bettors assign a 39% chance for Vice President Kamala Harris to defeat former President Trump, whose odds stand at 59%. Despite the illegality of election betting in the U.S., Polymarket has surpassed $650 million in trading volume this year, attracting attention from campaign managers and analysts. Meanwhile, in New Zealand, the future of government weather forecasting agencies MetService and Niwa is uncertain as a review evaluates the need for a unified forecasting body. Central banks have also shifted their approach to inflation forecasts after struggling to predict price surges in 2021 and 2022, leading to more accurate predictions in 2024. Additionally, Ireland's competition regulator has recently approved two significant deals, while a Phase II probe into a mobile network partnership is underway.